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Mission 5 of 16

Probability Basics

📋 What it is

Probability of an event = favorable outcomes ÷ total outcomes, a number from 0 (never) to 1 (certain).

🗣️ Coach says

Probability measures how likely something is, as a fraction between 0 and 1. Rolling a 3 on a die is 1 of 6 equally-likely outcomes, so 1/6. Data science lives on probability — it’s how we reason about uncertainty.

🧠 Memory hook

Probability = WANT ÷ TOTAL, always between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain). 1/2 = a coin flip.

😂 Giggle

What did the mean say to the data set?
"I'm just your average friend!"

😲 Whoa!

A "1 in a million" event still happens to somebody every day in a country of hundreds of millions — rare doesn’t mean never.

✅ Quick check: What is the probability of rolling an even number on a normal 6-sided die?

Say your answer out loud first — then reveal.

🧪 Try it! (2 minutes)

Roll a die 12 times and tally each number. Do they land roughly even (about 2 each)?

⭐ Do the round to earn your star →
🤸 Brain break: Scale it: hold hands close for "0 = never", wide apart for "1 = certain", halfway for "50-50".