The Rare Event
📋 What it is
A base rate is how common something is to begin with. Viral hits are RARE, so "it could go viral" ignores the base rate — most posts do not, no matter what.
🗣️ Coach says
Everyone remembers the one video that blew up and forgets the millions that did not. That is survivorship bias — you only see the winners. The base rate of virality is tiny; plan for the typical outcome, not the lottery ticket.
🧠 Memory hook
Base rate = how common it is to start. Rare events feel likely because we only see the winners.
😂 Giggle
Why did the thumbnail go to art class?
It wanted to earn an honest click!
😲 Whoa!
You mostly hear "I quit my job and went viral!" from the people it worked for — the far larger crowd it failed for never makes a video about it.
✅ Quick check: A creator says "post daily and you WILL go viral." What base-rate mistake is that?
Say your answer out loud first — then reveal.
It ignores that virality is rare (a tiny base rate) and only counts the visible winners — survivorship bias.
Remembering the base rate keeps you from over-trusting a rare, cherry-picked success.
🧪 Try it! (2 minutes)
List three "success story" claims you have heard and ask: what is the base rate of that working?