🧮 PremiseBench
Before you start
A real case · you decide
Ngozi’s five minutes
Ngozi — a public-health student with five minutes at a school board meeting
The board is deciding whether to close the school for a week during a flu outbreak. Ngozi has run a simple outbreak model and has five minutes to speak.
Her model has four premises: contacts per day, the chance a contact passes it on, days a person is infectious, and how many are sick on day one.
She is fairly sure about the infectious days. The chance of passing it on is a rough estimate from last winter. Nobody knows how many students are sick right now.
What does Ngozi show the board first?
A board member says, “Models are always wrong. Why should we trust yours?”
A model card does not make a model right. It shows people exactly where to push.
What next? Pick a door
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